Economists - new clothes or no clothes?

Stephanie Flanders today posted on a blog entitled the 'economist's new clothes'. Whilst starting a little debate, it choose to refer to the 'latest spin', rather than address the revolution in 'economics' we are likely to see. Hence adding the post (75) below:

IMHO traditional 'economics' is 'too narrow' in scope and also 'out-of-date'. It has also 'failed' hard-working people and is now effectively 'dead'.

But attempts to improve it, change it or widen it, will always be resisted. Dr W Edwards Deming, a creative outsider and a real 'leader', uncovered the "System of Profound Knowledge" and referred to the need for a "New Economics" (over 20 years ago) ... but, when terms are so out of date new words/definitions are needed, and for that reason, and for those interested, I am continuing his work ... using the definitions below:

* Leanomics = People taking responsibility for adding value and continuously improving the situation for others (e.g. customers, communities, overall environment), based upon fundamental values such as trust, honor, responsibility and respect.

* Ignoromics = People are either effectively ignorant of the situation (e.g. the overall environment) or not prepared to take responsibility to make sure it changes for the better.

* Poweromics = People using position and power for their own personal gain, based on poor moral values, self interest and greed.

It is worth noting virtually everything fundamentally centres around 'people' and the 'values' they uphold. It is also worth noting that Ignoromics is what allows Poweromics to flourish, and in my view this summarises the current (and widened) definition of 'economics' that prevails today.

Why not take a look at what 'leaders' everywhere are doing (e.g. your boss, company, service provider, government, politicians, media ...) and look at how many people understand this and/or prepared to do something about it ... I think you'll find its small ... albeit steadily growing (helped by the internet, and recent activities of banks/MP's etc).

IMHO the battle of the future is really one of values, and given the above definitions, can be simply summarised as ...

Leanomics v Poweromics & Ignoromics

For those interested I hope this is helpful ... and I would certainly recommend the work of Dr. W. Edwards Deming ( as well as http://poweromics.blogspot.com ) as a good starting point for looking into this further ... people are still amazed (and learning) how profound his insight actually was ... e.g. he told us far more about the future of economics than Richard Thaler in his lectures and book (I went to one of his lectures in London around the time of release of Nudge). I think you'll find people are still flocking to the latest incremental ideas, not more revolutionary ideas, yet only the economies moving rapidly to the latter will survive and prosper e.g. Singapore's turn-around - http://poweromics.blogspot.com/2009/10/asking-questions-doing-things.html

Whether people like it or not, the clock is ticking away and time is rapidly running out for most economies.

... I also added the following post referring to a previous bloggers (post 74) comments ...

"... Sheer self-interest or FUJIA !! So long the steerers can gain relative to the rest, they will carry on being motivated !! It doesn't matter what the price of beans is, if someone has more beans than someone else, he is relatively wealthier !! ... It's all relative, as Einstein was alleged to have said !! :-) ..."

I couldn't agree more - one of the main drivers of "poor moral values, self-interest and greed" (see post 75) is ENVY ... which drives/motivates people to want more than someone else, particularly those they compare themselves with, hence the term 'keeping up with the Jones's' - it's not absolute wealth that bothers most people, but relative wealth to those they continually compare themselves with, which drives poor moral values, self-interest and greed.

IMHO only a return of 'fundamental values' (e.g. trust, honor, responsibility, respect) will turn around 'economies' in a sustainable way now, and time is on no-one's side.

'Recession' and 'Depression'

Official figures confirmed last week that the UK economy 'contracted' once again - pointing to the fact that the country is still in recession - and it's the first time that UK Gross Domestic Product (the total amount of goods and services produced by a country) has contracted for six consecutive quarters (ever since quarterly figures began to be recorded in 1955). The pound fell further after the figures were released, reflecting the fact that many investors had expected the UK economy to 'grow' slightly in the last quarter, which would have technically taken the UK 'out of recession'.

Despite 'printing money' and generating a 'great deal of spin', the UK is one of the few G20 countries still to technically come 'out of recession' (e.g. France and Germany came out of recession six months ago). Potential investors have seen the effective devaluation of the UK's currency (through the £150bn Quantitative Easing programme), but they are also now able to see through the 'spin', and to see the fundamental weaknesses within the UK economy.

The 'stock market recovery' and 'housing recovery' are all part of the 'spin'/'scam' to artificially raise confidence, as 'assets' such as these 'appear to rise' because the 'value of every pound has been reduced'! As highlighted previously, as the pound slides against foreign currencies (nb the UK pound has already lost nearly 30% of its value against currencies such as the euro), the price of imported goods entering the UK will rise (e.g. including oil & gas), pushing up prices and affecting people's purchasing power further. High unemployment may hold back 'wage inflation', but it will not stop 'import price inflation' or people becoming 'progressively worse off'.

As import prices rise, unemployment grows, taxes increase and massive cutbacks are introduced (to pay back spiraling Government debt), the UK will start to feel the real impact of this Government's failure, their lack of prudence, their self-interest (e.g. MP's expenses) and their support of greed (e.g. diverting tax payers money to bail out banks and effectively paying for their excessive bonuses, rather than fixing the problem and helping hard-working people/businesses) - all of which will negatively impact the overall well-being of our nation for generations to come.

Gordon Brown is telling us we will come out of recession by the next quarter, but as many analysts have pointed out, this will mainly be because of a rush of purchases taking place before the Government puts VAT back up to 17.5% at the end of the year! The timing of this change, alongside the delay in addressing spiraling Government debt, are clearly linked to Gordon's own personal agenda/self-interest and demonstrates a cynical 'misuse of power' ... as he wants to say 'he was the one who brought the UK out of recession' (just before the election), as well as to 'blame others' for it all going wrong afterwards! (e.g. see my previous post on the double-dip recession) ... which shows the sheer hypocrisy of a man who is happy to preach to us about 'values' and 'prudence', despite demonstrating neither of these qualities himself.

In the 21st century, GDP is not a true indicator of a nation's 'economic success' either. The use of the word 'recovery' whilst everyone is effectively becoming worse off, and more and more people are losing their jobs, is arguably perverse too. Such outcomes not only result in 'recession', they also create 'depression'. More holistic measures are needed to assess the overall well-being of a nation (e.g. take a look at the 'BUTS' test for instance) and as the overall situation continues to gets worse, ignorance will reduce, depression will grow and anger will increase (e.g. towards the bankers who are once again 'pocketing' billions in bonuses, whilst everyone else pays for it through increased taxes, and and through more and more people losing their jobs).

Traditional economics is dead, and a new economics & politics is about to emerge (powered by the internet) ... focused on community contentment, the well-being of people, and the ability to create real value for others (founded upon fundamental values such as trust, honor, responsibility, respect) ... instead of focusing on wealth manipulation, based on poor moral values, self-interest and greed (e.g. fueled by envy, celebrity and the media).

The battle of the future is one that transcends nations, and is a battle of values:

Leanomics vs Poweromics & Ignoromics

... where values (and value creation) once again return to challenge poor moral values, self-interest & greed (and wealth manipulation)

Nations that fail to change will fail to survive ... and with the advent of modern communication people now have far more 'information', 'choice', and 'power' ... they just haven't realised, or exercised, it yet ... but they will ... and as Ignoromics reduces Poweromics will be challenged, in many different ways ...