I predict a riot ... or public disorder ... says ex Police Chief

With budgets under increasing pressure, unemployment growing and Police morale also becoming an issue, Lord Stevens, recently launched an independent commission into the future of Policing, saying "my own belief is - and it's a very personal one - that (over) the next 18 months, two to three years, one of the main issues will be public order, or rather public disorder".

"I don't think anyone would disagree with that in terms of the challenges facing policing. We'll be looking at that in some detail," he said.

"My gut feeling and beyond is that it's going to be a very difficult 18 months, two years, but I hope to God I'm wrong."

He predicted "disquiet on the streets" and said he was really concerned about unemployment - particularly youth unemployment and "a sense of increasing crime" and said "The police have to be absolutely match fit to deal with these issues."

Indeed - I don't think anyone needs a crystal ball to see this one coming ... and I think the timeframes are probably about right too.

Politicians round on Murdoch ... and force him to drop his BSkyB bid

Cameron clings on ... by announcing more details of the judicial inquiry being planned into the scandals involving the media and police ... and by deciding to support a 'cross-party' coalition debate (though did not himself attend!) ... responding to the scandals embroiling News Corporation and pressurising News Corporation to withdraw his bid for BSkyB - which Murdoch has now done!*  

To save his own skin Cameron has had to jettison his ties to Murdoch and finally 'let Coulson go', saying ... 'if he lied to not only to himself, but select committees and judges, then he should be prosecuted'. Cameron will I hope that attention gradually moves away from the questioning of his judgement on hiring Coulson, but is probably quietly worried about what Coulson himself might say now (e.g. Coulson on being arrested commented he "has a lot he would like to say, but currently can't").

'People power', building up as a result of growing concern about the misuse of power and the growing influence of the internet (e.g. social networks), is starting to force politicians to listen, and forcing corporations to think carefully about any negative impact on their brands (which is why they were quick to withdraw their advertising from News of the World).

Cameron has reduced the proposed inquiries down to one, and some see this as a clever way of taking some of the 'heat' away from the regulation/ownership of the press and away from how politicians work together/conspire with the Media ... however a number of groups, including the 'Hacked-Off' campaign and the family of Milly Dowler, are putting pressure on the Government to ensure the inquiry is both wide-ranging and thorough (e.g. it covers the behaviour of Politicians and Government in relation to the media). After talking to all party leaders, they said that they are reassured that voice of the People is starting to be heard ... and that they will continue to challenge the actions of groups such as the Press, Police and Politicians.

Let's see ... this has a long way to go ... 

* Is Rupert Murdoch trying to save News Corporation and/or his son James, currently Chairman of News International and Non-Executive Chairman of BSkyB ... as people are starting to ask if News Corporation is 'fit and proper' to own the existing 39% of BSkyB it currently owns too! ... and US senators are also starting to ask for enquiries into the practices of News Corporation in the US!

People: Do politicians represent them, police protect them and the press inform them ...?

This morning David Cameron has tried to come out fighting ... but 'boxed in' ... he has had to resort to using a little bit of honesty. Firstly he provided details on the two public inquiries being planned. 

The first, led by a judge, will get to the bottom of the specific revelations and allegations seen ... e.g. the illegal and utterly unacceptable practices taking place (e.g. phone hacking and illegal payments to corrupt police officers) ... to find out what happened ... and how it was allowed to happen.  This will include finding out why the first police investigation failed so abysmally ... what exactly was going on at the News of the World and what was going on at other newspapers, with this inquiry starting as soon as all police/criminal investigations are complete.

The second inquiry involves action associated with learning the wider lessons for the future of the press, conducted by a credible panel of figures drawn from a range of different backgrounds and who command the full support, respect and above all confidence of the public. They should be truly independent, without any motive but to seek the truth and clean up the press. In doing so they will look at the culture, the practices and the ethics of the British press, and in particular they should look at how our newspapers are regulated and make recommendations for the future (NB Cameron made clear self regulation and the Press Complaints Commission had failed).

He tried to limit the damage of his close personal relationships with Coulson and Brooks, but his final comments were the most damaging/telling of all ...

"But there is, as I said at the outset, a third question that this scandal asks of us, and it is not an easy one for me to answer. Because as we’re considering the devastating revelations of the past few days, it is no good just pointing the finger at this individual journalist, or that individual newspaper.

It’s no good, actually, just criticising the police. The truth is, we have all been in this together – the press, politicians and leaders of all parties – and yes, that includes me. We have not gripped this issue. 

During the last government, a police investigation was undertaken, it was inadequate and not enough was done. There were reports from the Information Commissioner and they went unheeded. There were Select Committee reports on phone hacking and there was no follow-up. Throughout all this, all the warnings, all the concern, the government at the time did nothing. And frankly, neither did the Opposition.

To be fair, it is difficult for politicians to call for more regulation of the media, because if we do so, we’re accused of wanting to stifle a free press or even free speech. But the deeper truth is this: there is a less noble reason. Because party leaders were so keen to win the support of newspapers we turned a blind eye to the need to sort this issue, get on top of the bad practices, to change the way our newspapers are regulated.

It’s a bit like MPs’ expenses. The people in power knew things weren’t right. But they didn’t do enough quickly enough – until the full mess of the situation was revealed.

Now, when the scandal hits and the truth is plain for everyone to see there are two choices. You can down-play it and deny the problem is deep – or you can accept the seriousness of the situation and deal with it. I want to deal with it.

These inquiries give us a chance for a fresh start and I want us to take it. Look, it’s healthy that politicians and journalists speak to each other; know each other. Democracy is government by explanation and we need the media to explain what we’re trying to do. But this is a wake-up call.

Over the decades, on the watch of both Labour leaders and Conservative leaders, politicians and the press have spent time courting support, not confronting the problems.

Well: it’s on my watch that the music has stopped. And I’m saying, loud and clear – things have got to change. The relationship needs to be different in the future. 

I’m not going to pretend that there’s some nirvana of two separate worlds, relating to each other on the basis of total transparency and ethical perfection. That's not real life.

But we can do a hell of a lot better than we’ve done so far. Because as this scandal shows, while it’s vital that a free press can tell truth to power it is equally important that those in power can tell truth to the press.

For people watching this scandal unfold, there is something disturbing about what they see. Just think of who they put their trust in. The police to protect them. The politicians to represent them. The press to inform them.

All of them have let them down.

So when the inquiries are over, the questions have been asked, and the truth found out I want a police that has proved itself beyond reproach, a political system that people feel is on their side and a press that is yes, free and rigorous; that investigates and entertains; that holds those in power to account and occasionally – yes, even regularly – drives them mad.

But, in the end, is a free press that is also clean and trustworthy. That is what people want. That is what I want. And I will not rest until we get it".

Indeed so ... but it's the collusion, corruption, and the blatant abuse/misuse of Power that is now clear for all to see ... not just with the Politicians, Media and Police ... but with the banks, corporate leaders, landowners and the whole judiciary too. e.g. if you started photocopying bank notes (and lending it out at interest) you'd be locked up ... yet this is what banks legally do everyday!

Such blatant abuses of Power are not going to go away ... not until more people wake up and smell the coffee ... and do something about it that is!

Aristotle famously said:

"Democracy is when the indigent, and not the men of property, are the rulers"

"In a democracy the poor will have more power than the rich, because there are more of them, and the will of the majority is supreme"

"The trade of the petty usurer is hated with most reason: it makes a profit from currency itself, instead of making it from the process which currency was meant to serve. Their common characteristic is obviously their sordid avarice"

"No notice is taken of a little evil, but when it increases it strikes the eye"

Collusion and corruption - between the Media, Police and Government ...

If anyone's in any doubt about the level of 'corruption', 'collusion' and 'misuse of power' in this country (e.g. bankers, politicians, media etc) ... then they need look no further than the 'circus' currently engulfing the media right now ...

Information, known by the Police for years, but 'quietly'/'corruptly' ignored, has now been raised that the 'News of World' has not only been illegally hacking phones of celebrities/politicians, but it has been paying corrupt Police Officers £10,000's for telephone numbers of crime victims (e.g. Milly Dowler), terrorist victims/survivors (e.g. 7/7) and war victims/relatives (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq) too ... and then, just as shockingly, deleting messages/evidence so more messages could be left (so they could also hack new messages too).

Once the scandal broke there's been uproar ... and the media (News of the World and the rest of Rupert Murdoch's Empire), Police and Government are reeling trying to work out what to do ... and, unusually, they currently do not appear to have an answer! 

David Cameron, the Prime Minister, has himself close links with current events, given his previous appointment of ex 'News of the World' editor Andy Coulson as his Director of Communications (who now appears to have been complicit in such activities) and also given his close personal friendship with Rebekah Brooks (currently News International CEO and former editor of the News of the World) too.

Mr Cameron has been predictably careful with his words ... confirming only that there will be an inquiry once the police 'inquiries' have concluded. But others are pressing the Government further over this whole murky affair, urging for both a public and judicial review into the handling off this affair, to avoid any risk of the police 'investigating themselves', and to avoid any risk of any 'cover-up'. People, such as Chris Bryant MP, are also demanding a very careful selection of who leads any such review, given the vast number of police and judiciary involved in secretive groups (e.g. the masons) ... [which in itself uncovers yet more about the corrupt world we live in!] 

Given the illegal/unethical practices going on within the News of the World/News International, many (including OfCom) are once again challenging the Government over the proposed takeover of BSkyB by Rupert Murdoch's (owner of News Corporation, News International and News of the World). 

Rupert Murdoch controls a great deal of the media already, yet Jeremy Hunt, despite strong representations (over 100,000), still appears to be resisting referring the takeover to the Competition Commission. However OfCom are themselves could consider, particularly given recent events, blocking the takeover on grounds that News Corporation does not appear to be a "fit and proper" owner of a UK broadcaster.

Ministers are loathed to challenge Murdoch, due to the power he already wields (or more specifically the misuse of power he wields!), but a number of Politicians are now saying enough is enough ... and Politicians must stop colluding with the media and put a stop to this murky/corrupt practice. Chris Bryant told the House of Commons that the 'whole political system has failed'! 

I agree ... but do you think this will happen?  ... IMHO the spin doctors (NB David Cameron was an ex-PR man himself!) will find ways to 'buy time' ... time to see how things develop and time to see how they can 'spin their way out of this' ... in order to clear their name ... and to give their 'friend' Murdoch what wants!

A sign of things to come ...?

Police lines created to ensure tuition fees are tripled (despite all the protests)

The "Royals" - caught out, caught up, and looking at the road ahead ... ?

As the Government voted to triple student tuition fees, anger amongst the young bubbled up, a fellow blogger pointed out ...

"I reckon that most students protesting don’t really understand how the system works.

With all money (notes and coins excepted) being created as debt bearing interest, and more debt being needed to satisfy repayment of existing debt + interest, either there has to be more debt or deflation and debt default must occur.

The system is inflationary and requires an increasing level of debt to survive in its present form, but there’s a problem:

1. The hopelessly indebted will borrow till the cows come home, but can’t pay it back.

2. The modestly indebted could borrow, but are nervous of their economic future.

3. And the prudent won’t borrow per-se because they see it as the road to ruin.

Enter the poor student ... The system needs new debtors, and what better way to get them than sucking in the young with student loans. And if the system needs more money (debt), then raise tuition fees."

The banks created the crisis (and debt), were bailed out by the taxpayer, and continue to reward themselves billions in bonuses.  To generate more debt, the banks need more victims (and ones more likely to be able to pay it back) ... so the Government slash University teaching budgets by nearly 80% (over 3-4x the level of cuts to other public services), remove EMA for 16-18 year olds, and force students (the future generation) into becoming those debtors (to the tune of £40-80k)!  

Future generations will not forgive the perpetrators of this crime ... or those who renege on their election promises - so IMHO we will now see the Liberal Democrats heading towards the wastelands, along with any chance of real electoral reform  ... and for all the conspiracy theorists this will appear to be a cunning Conservative plan successfully completed!


But can the Conservatives be happy ... well no, not really ... as the politicians who are probably enjoying this the most are Labour, as they see themselves as the beneficiaries of all this at the next election, when both sides of the coalition are forced out of office for failing to deal with the mess (that Labour itself created)! This did not have to be the case, but the coalition are currently letting off/rewarding the guilty (i.e. the bankers) and punishing the innocent (i.e. future generations/hard-working people) ... which make previous comments by Mervyn King (referring to those voted into power in the 2010 election being subsequently out of power for a whole generation) more and more relevant!  

Whilst this may be the beginning of the end for the Liberal Democrats, IMHO it is not the beginning of the end to all the objections, protest and anger ... as the tuition fees debacle has a long way to run, and this is just one of numerous unfair, unjust and unpopular proposals/cuts the coalition are looking to force upon us ...

Squeezing budgets - a Leanomics (and Economystic) view

On Stephanie Flanders recent blog I was asked a question about the squeezing of budgets, and some of the challenges ahead, and in response I wrote:

'IMHO your questions/insights are good. The government (and politicians of all colours) are void of ideas and/or unprepared to take on the challenges ahead in any robust way (nb the main things in Gordon’s toolbox seem to be QE, inflation and spin). IMHO the fundamental problem we actually face is one of outdated leadership & management practices (e.g. in terms of politics, economics, service and enterprise).

There are lots of ways companies & nations will ‘grow’ in the future, but outdated leadership / management practices mean most ‘leaders’ haven’t got a clue how to do it, and the majority of ‘leaders/managers’ will have to ‘unlearn what they have learnt’ in order to access the ‘world of opportunity’ of opportunity that actually exists. The idea of somehow hoping/relying upon a immediate/massive resurgence in manufacturing is also flawed, as is the concept of considering products and services in isolation of each other.

In terms of public sector cuts, IMHO given the level of crisis now faced the only robust solution (both in the short term and the long term) is to rapidly introduce 21st century lean management practice … to continuously, and systematically, remove all non-value adding activities and divert all of our taxes/resources to value adding activities. When enterprises start to do this, most initially find between 40-90% of all time / resources are actually being wasted (and as you can probably imagine with public sector services this tends to be at the higher end of the scale!).

Leaders/managers need to learn how to support front line staff to continuously improve the way the work works (and how to systematically challenge/remove all the barriers to providing value in more effective ways). This process invariably releases resources (a lot of resources!), but the ‘key’ thing is what you do with the resources released. Front line resources released need to be re-invested into improving / increasing the services provided. Managers supporting front line staff to continuously improve how value can be provided are also kept, but the remaining ‘leadership’ and ‘management’ (i.e. who don’t understand the work, create barriers instead of removing them, frustrate front line staff and prefer to ‘manage’ targets / league tables / people rather help/support people) need to find something else to do (e.g. work out how to add value!)

Resources released from front-line services are used to continuously improving the level of value provided and to identify/provide more effective services too (yes – more services – hence the term ‘more for less’). Meanwhile management has to change fundamentally (i.e. to lean management), with far fewer managers carrying out very different work – e.g. supporting front line staff continuously improving the work and systemically removing every barrier in their way of doing this (e.g. the plethora of bureaucracy and flawed policies – nb top line figures for the number of pen-pushers/bureaucrats is just the tip of the iceberg and most current policies are designed to generate waste, not remove it). You can think of this as a systematic ‘bureaucracy stripper’.

Lean management also needs to be applied to Government policies too (nb the bottom up continuous improvement described above would drive this anyway) … for instance changing the vast array of complex tax structures/credits which has resulted in a culture of dependency and armies of paper pushers to ‘check/process’ them all. It would also introduce robust, fairer, and much simpler taxes such as a Land Value Tax (referred to earlier). It was also remove the flawed and outdated targets/league table culture introduced by this Government … for instance take a look at my recent post here.

Lean management is already starting to be applied by forward thinking police forces/hospitals (with dramatic and positive outcomes – 30/40% improved outcomes in terms of time, resources, service quality, staff moral…). Change is coming, but it has been held back/stifled by all the policies/barriers put in place by this Government (e.g. league table/target culture).

Millions of jobs are going to be lost in the short term whether we like it or not … given this we need to make sure we lose the non-value adding ones and reinvest time/resources released from front line services to provide more and better services, so we can start to get back on track and avoid ‘cutting/slashing’ the actual services provided (like countries such as Singapore have done) … we also need to offer the majority of ‘managers’ released training in 21st century leadership and management practice! IMHO the youth of today should also be given the opportunity to separately learn about 21st century leadership & management practice too (e.g. within school), as it would expose them to the actual world of opportunity still out there, and expand their leadership and entrepreneurial qualities too.

Based on Deming’s work, I successfully decoded 21st century leadership and management two years ago, as well as the system diagrams describing the above (P219-223) … for those interested in learning more about this you can always read my book online (via Google books) here …

NB the ‘losers’ – the leeches/managers who add no value, fail to listen/learn, have no interest in helping/supporting anyone (eg like to please their boss, rather than customers / front line staff) and have no interest in learning/applying 21st century leadership & management. The other losers will be those who like to ‘obtain lots more wealth’ but by ‘adding no value’ ...'

Eliminating Crime or Profiting from Crime?

The bbc today report today - UK 'failing' on causes of crime (we have twice the average crime of other European nations)

This is no surprise to those familiar with Poweromics.  As referred to in my book, the Criminal Justice system (which includes the police), needs to focus on 'tackling the causes of crime', and not just profiting from the 'processing of crime'. This is what most police officers go into the force for, until they become institutionalized into the 'system' and give up (eg PC David Copperfield).

The West Midlands Police (mentioned in Chapter 6 of my book - P189-198) have taken a far more proactive approach to policing, by focusing on tackling the causes of crime and developing much better relationships with the communities they serve.  The rest of the criminal justice system has not followed suit however (nor have all the other police forces).

Those involved in rest of the Judiciary System effectively 'profit' from 'processing crime', rather than tackling the 'causes of crime', including lawyers etc, and all at tax payers expense ... and who makes the laws ... the Government ... and who's in Government ... mostly Lawyers/QC's!

This cosy relationship also highlights another area where Poweromics exists ... and one where police who care about our communities are as frustrated by this as we are ... but do Turkey's vote for Christmas? ... not whilst they have a choice ... nor whilst we let them get away with 'murder' ... !